In late January the CMBD compiled a comparison of GDP growth estimates by the World Bank, the UN DESA, the OECD and the IMF. Find it here. The OECD estimates shown were from the November 2011 assessment, but the estimates from the other organizations were released in January 2012. On 29 March the OECD released its Interim Assessment, with the next full assessment due for publication on 22 May 2012. (See the details here and here). The OECD’s current interim assessment predicts more robust growth than previously predicted, at least through the first half of 2012, particularly for the United States, but also for Japan and the Euro Zone. The November report showed projected growth for the United States in 2012 at 2.0 percent and in 2013 at 2.5 percent. These estimates were in the middle of the range of those published by the other major sources. The revised OECD projections for the first and second quarters of 2012 are 2.9 percent and 2.8 percent respectively (quarter on quarter), indicating growth well above what had been previously predicted for 2012 as a whole.

In the November release, the OECD also predicted 2.0 percent growth for Japan in 2012, but slower growth in 2013 at 1.6 percent. The revised estimates for the first half of 2012 are 3.4 percent for the first quarter and 1.4 percent for the second, quarter over quarter. These estimates suggest a considerably more optimistic outlook. The OECD also provides estimates for the three largest Euro countries. Like the other major international organizations, the OECD had a disappointing projection for Europe, but at 0.2 percent for 2012 and 1.5 percent for 2013, not nearly as dire and pessimistic as the projections by the World Bank (-0.2 percent in 2012; 1.1 percent in 2013) and the IMF (-0.5 percent in 2012 and 0.8 percent in 2013) for the Euro Zone as a whole. The OECD now predicts a downturn of -0.4 percent in the first quarter of 2012, and a return to growth of 0.9 percent in the second quarter for the three largest Euro Zone countries taken as a whole.

The OECD gives as reasons for the stronger growth in the United States a rebound in equity prices, stronger consumer confidence, and growth in nonfarm payroll employment, all of which have help boost the forecast. Key factors contributing to GDP growth of the Japanese economy include the recovery of industrial production from the negative shocks experienced in 2011, and a weaker yen. The situation in Europe however, remains tenuous, but rebound in the second quarter is hoped for, led by renewed growth in Germany.

The Special Rapporteur on the Right To Food, Olivier de Schutter (Belgium) appeared before the Human Rights Council to present his latest report (see 27 February CMBD News) and for members of the Council to respond.   The Rapporteur referred to concerns raised in his report about malnutrition not being just a lack of food but of consuming the wrong kinds of foods.  He argued for a right to food rich in nutrients and diversity and criticized the globalization of food as being responsible for both malnutrition and obesity.   He had also reported on visits to China, Madagascar, South Africa and Mexico, and these members of the Council responded first.  The Chinese and South African representatives were very critical and argued that the Rapporteur had his facts wrong.  Similarly, the US criticized the reporting for incomplete economic and social analysis and incorrect policy prescriptions.  The EU was perhaps gentler in suggesting that there were positive benefits from private sector interventions to improve nutrition.  In general, the rest of the discussion focused on how countries were addressing efforts to improve nutrition, while a number of interventions, including one from the WHO, also focused on the specific benefits of breast-feeding for healthy nutritional development.  There is a draft resolution on the right to food presented by Cuba that is being discussed this week.  The resolution has been introduced before, and it does include a very broad array of proposals, many of which are very general.  We will continue to report on this.

Intellectual Property has secured its position on the global agenda in 2012, with action already being taken across the board on shoring up IP policy. Looking forward, we provide below some insight into the IP issues we feel are the most interesting at this stage.

WIPO

The World Intellectual Property Organization has a full program lined up for 2012, with an apparent breakthrough at last year’s General Assemblies in the impasse between developed and emerging economies.  This accomplishment is all the more impressive when one observes that the developing country interests were transformed into a Development Agenda Group, a coalition that mobilized a continuing engagement for development on IP issues.  We are impressed with the variety of IP-related issues that are starting to move, and a handy outline of the full menu is available in the WIPO press release summarizing the outcomes at the close of these General Assemblies on 5 October, available here.    We won’t list the whole menu here but only mention some of the highlights for 2012.  Most importantly, perhaps, there will be a diplomatic conference mid-year (20 to 26 June) in Beijing for a treaty on protecting audiovisual performers. Information on the conference is available here.  This treaty was delayed for a good ten years over a dispute on transfer of rights between performers and producers, with the breakthrough compromise language actually being agreed to in the summer of 2011.  So maybe this is not such a major newsworthy development, but on other copyright-related issues relating to broadcasting organizations, in one example, and the rights of persons with print disabilities, in another example, the barriers to agreement have yet to be overcome.  Perhaps this breakthrough for audiovisual performers will help nudge things along.

Another area where WIPO members are flirting with a possible treaty is in the area(s) of traditional knowledge, traditional cultural expressions and genetic resources.  Here the deliberations of an Inter-Governmental Committee (IGC) on these three related topics have attracted a growing number of NGOs, and the General Assemblies renewed the mandate of the Committee in order to prod the members to engage in the formalities that precede the convening of a diplomatic conference for a treaty.  This relates to a procedure described as “text-based negotiation for an eventual legal instrument(s)”.  Advocates of a diplomatic conference hope that this will happen with a green light to be given by the General Assemblies when they meet this year, for a diplomatic conference in 2013.   The IGC has a long session on 14 to 22 February to give it a try.

And finally, we mention some of the brewing issues relating to IP and the Internet.  The WIPO Standing Committee on Trademarks, Industrial Designs and Geographic Indications will also be meeting in February (1-3 February) to delve into the touchy subject of who controls what with regard to Internet domain names.  There’s a whole lot else going on, of course, but we bring this one up because it is one of the many places where the Internet battle between open space and IP is rearing its profile.  Using a plant metaphor, we see a battle between growth from flourishing unfettered innovation versus growth from channeled and cultivated innovation.   In the WIPO Committee, the issue is new domain names threatening the intellectual property of trademarks.  The issue is also being debated in the UN Commission on Science and Technology for Development, where a Working Group on the Future of the Internet Governance Forum will be presenting its report with recommendations in May, but also, as we see below, in domestic political battles as well.

European Union

IP features prominently as one of Denmark’s many priorities for its six-month presidency of the European Union, specifically in the context of further developing EU IP policy – including reviewing trademark rules and the development of a common EU patent system. Other relevant priorities for this Danish Presidency include international trade and issues surrounding research and innovation. With regards to the proposed common EU patent system, the greatest hurdle at this stage relates to discussions over the creation of a “patent court.”

United States

The debate between incentivizing innovation and availability of cheap technology is raging in Congress. Indeed a recently published Department of Commerce report entitled “The Competitiveness and Innovative Capacity of the United States”, mandated by the COMPETES Reauthorization Act of 2010, points out that “Innovation is the key driver of competitiveness, wage and job growth, and long-term economic growth” and that three main pillars have contributed in the past to American growth: Federal support for basic research, education, and infrastructure. The report highlights that ongoing investment is required in these three areas if the US is to sustain its growth. A couple of IP-related initiatives have already been debated on the Congress floor this year: the Stop Online Piracy Act (SOPA) – shelved, but likely to come back in an amended format – and the Protect IP Act (PIPA).  SOPA was shelved after the White House let it be known that President Obama did “not support legislation that reduces freedom of expression, increases cybersecurity risk, or undermines the dynamic, innovative global Internet”.  This legislation had provisions in it to block foreign websites for reasons of online piracy. See more here.